/macroeconomics
Macroeconomic modelling for policy formulation
National Treasury (NT) is central to macroeconomic policy in South Africa and holds a key role in maintaining macroeconomic stability around an achievable path of growing output capacity. This work stream is designed to further strengthen the capacity of NT, alongside other actors in the region, and to analyse macroeconomic developments and policy options in southern Africa.
Work on macroeconomic simulation models will be undertaken alongside separate studies related to macroeconomic stability, e.g. fiscal and monetary policies, exchange rate competitiveness, and exchange rate volatility. Two central policy objectives underlie and run through the work stream: raising South Africa’s sustainable growth rate and reducing inequality in South Africa.
The research is focused on five broad areas of policy focus
- fiscal policy
- monetary policy
- public investment and debts
- regional policy
- core policy analysis models of South African economy
Each area will engage junior NT officials as team members working jointly with the UNU-WIDER and NT team leaders on the respective topics.
Working paper
This paper aims to analyse the influence of spillovers into South Africa’s economy from shifts in United States of America’s (US) monetary policy. Often changing, the US interest rate is regarded as an important driving...
January 2021
Macro modelling
Working paper
We investigate the relevance of beta (β, absolute and conditional) and sigma (σ) convergence in the economies of the Common Monetary Area of Southern Africa and in the provinces of the Republic of South Africa...
December 2020
Macro modelling
Working paper
This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and wealth inequality in South Africa. We employed a unique database of tax administrative data which allowed us to account for individual heterogeneity. These tax data span...
December 2020
Macro modelling
Research seminar
19 Jan 2021 / 15:00
to
16:00
Macro modelling
On 19 January the SA-TIED programme hosted an online seminar on petrol price regulation, as well as the impact on the South African economy of alternative regulatory arrangements in the petroleum sector. The presentation was...
Working paper
This paper empirically examines South Africa’s fiscal sustainability through a Markov-switching model which utilizes quarterly datasets for the period from 1960 to 2019. The results show that public debt responds positively, demonstrating a sustainable fiscal...
November 2020
Macro modelling
Working paper
Exchange rate volatility is said to exemplify the economic health of a country. Exchange rate break points (known as structural breaks) have a momentous impact on the macroeconomy of a country. Nonetheless, this country study...
November 2020
Macro modelling
Working paper
As the world battles with the triple problems of social, economic, and environmental challenges, it has become important to focus both policy and research efforts on these. Therefore, this study examines the effect of wealth...
November 2020
Macro modelling
Working paper
This paper adds quantitative analysis to the study by Crompton et al. (2020), in which various alternative regulatory arrangements regarding the petrol price in South Africa were explored. We use a multi-sector dynamic computable general...
November 2020
Macro modelling
Research Brief
Monetary policy affects the real economy through various channels, including the interest rate, exchange rate, credit, and asset price channels. The credit channel has recently received considerable attention. Small firms are more sensitive to changes...
November 2020
Macro modelling
Research seminar
2 Dec 2020 / 15:00
to
16:00
Macro modelling
On 2 December the SA-TIED programme will host an online seminar on wage inequality under inflation-targeting in South Africa. The presentation will be given by Serena Merrino based on a WIDER Working Paper under the...
Working paper
The South African liquid fuels industry is a significant part of the economy. Historically, government policy focused on import substitution industrialization to support industry margins. This approach is called into question by the 2006 shift...
October 2020
Macro modelling
Working paper
Inequality in South Africa is the enduring legacy of racial discrimination. We use a dynamic perspective to show the linkages between persistent effects of discrimination in the labour market and the efficacy of redistributive fiscal...
October 2020
Macro modelling