/macroeconomics
Macroeconomic modelling for policy formulation
National Treasury (NT) is central to macroeconomic policy in South Africa and holds a key role in maintaining macroeconomic stability around an achievable path of growing output capacity. This work stream is designed to further strengthen the capacity of NT, alongside other actors in the region, and to analyse macroeconomic developments and policy options in southern Africa.
Work on macroeconomic simulation models will be undertaken alongside separate studies related to macroeconomic stability, e.g. fiscal and monetary policies, exchange rate competitiveness, and exchange rate volatility. Two central policy objectives underlie and run through the work stream: raising South Africa’s sustainable growth rate and reducing inequality in South Africa.
The research is focused on five broad areas of policy focus
- fiscal policy
- monetary policy
- public investment and debts
- regional policy
- core policy analysis models of South African economy
Each area will engage junior NT officials as team members working jointly with the UNU-WIDER and NT team leaders on the respective topics.
Request for research proposals
Download the full Request for Research Proposals The United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER), together with the National Treasury of South Africa, is requesting research proposals under the second phase of...
August 2022
Enterprise development
Public revenue
Macro modelling
Working paper
Up-to-date, nationally representative household income/expenditure data are crucial to estimating poverty during the COVID-19 pandemic and to policy-making more broadly, but South Africa lacks such data. We present new pandemic poverty estimates, simulating incomes in...
July 2022
Macro modelling
Working paper
South Africa runs a primary fiscal deficit and the long-term interest rate on government borrowing, r, is greater than the long-term economic growth rate, g. Without intervention, debt will continue to rise until there is...
June 2022
Macro modelling
Research Brief
South Africa runs a large, persistent primary fiscal deficit and the interest rate on government debt, r, is greater than the economic growth rate, g (see Figure 1). Mathematically, these conditions mean sovereign debt accumulates...
June 2022
Macro modelling
Working paper
This paper reviews South Africa’s monetary policy since 2007 and makes recommendations towards improving the inflation-targeting framework currently in place. Following a surge in inflation into double digits in 2007/08, the South African Reserve Bank...
March 2022
Macro modelling
News
To showcase key lessons from SA-TIED phase I, the programme produced a series of eight videos that feature the major accomplishments from each of the six work streams and the data lab. Watch all eight...
February 2022
Enterprise development
Public revenue
Macro modelling
Inequality
Climate and energy
Regional growth
Working paper
This study analyses the performance of macroeconomic policy in South Africa in 2007–2020 and outlines challenges for policy in the coming decade. After remarkable economic growth in 1997–07, South Africa’s progress slowed dramatically in 2009...
February 2022
Macro modelling
In the media
Last Thursday the Minister of Finance, Enoch Godongwana, emphasized the importance of data and evidence-based research in implementing economic policy in South Africa. The Minister was speaking at an online event co-hosted by Business Day...
February 2022
Enterprise development
Public revenue
Macro modelling
Inequality
Climate and energy
Regional growth
Report
This report is a summary of the SA-TIED programme’s major research contributions to the policy environment. These contributions are not policy proposals, but are meant to inform the policymaking process and fill important gaps in...
January 2022
Enterprise development
Public revenue
Macro modelling
Inequality
Climate and energy
Regional growth
Policy dialogue
27 Jan 2022 / 09:00
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10:00
Enterprise development
Public revenue
Macro modelling
Inequality
Climate and energy
Regional growth
On 27 January, the Southern Africa – Towards Inclusive Economic Development (SA-TIED) programme, in partnership with the Business Day Dialogues, will host an online discussion with South Africa’s Finance Minister and experts from the SA-TIED...
Policy Brief
Over the last decade, emerging market economy countries such as South Africa have seen their levels of government debt-to-GDP rise substantially, which has led to much debate around fiscal sustainability and sovereign debt risk. Even...
October 2021
Macro modelling
Working paper
Debt-financed fiscal stimulus programmes directly stimulate aggregate demand through government expenditure or tax cuts, but their effectiveness is highly dependent on direct crowding out of private sector expenditure, spillover effects to the private sector through...
October 2021
Macro modelling