/macroeconomics
Macroeconomic modelling for policy formulation
National Treasury (NT) is central to macroeconomic policy in South Africa and holds a key role in maintaining macroeconomic stability around an achievable path of growing output capacity. This work stream is designed to further strengthen the capacity of NT, alongside other actors in the region, and to analyse macroeconomic developments and policy options in southern Africa.
Work on macroeconomic simulation models will be undertaken alongside separate studies related to macroeconomic stability, e.g. fiscal and monetary policies, exchange rate competitiveness, and exchange rate volatility. Two central policy objectives underlie and run through the work stream: raising South Africa’s sustainable growth rate and reducing inequality in South Africa.
The research is focused on five broad areas of policy focus
- fiscal policy
- monetary policy
- public investment and debts
- regional policy
- core policy analysis models of South African economy
Each area will engage junior NT officials as team members working jointly with the UNU-WIDER and NT team leaders on the respective topics.
Working paper
This study contributes to the existing body of knowledge within the South African context by empirically examining the ability of the yield spread to provide information about future inflation. Additionally, we examine the effect of...
June 2018
Macro modelling
Working paper
This paper lays the foundation for the analysis of the macro- and socio-economic benefits of a transition in the power sector to be made using a linked energy-economy modelling framework called SATIMGE. SATIMGE is made...
June 2018
Macro modelling
Climate and energy
Working paper
This paper analyses responses from the City of Johannesburg survey on economic performance, competitiveness and the challenges faced, from over 300 firms. The study suggests that that a significant proportion of firms exhibited growth between...
May 2018
Macro modelling
Working paper
According to the macroeconomic theory of aggregate demand, low real interest rates imply a low cost of borrowing for firms, which encourages them to increase the level of investment in the economy, and thus improve...
May 2018
Macro modelling
Working paper
This study examines the operation of monetary policy using quarterly data from 1994 through 2015 and the sub-period covering 2002–15, when monetary policy was formally defined by inflation targeting. The principal research question we address...
April 2018
Macro modelling
Working paper
This paper presents a financial-real stock-and-flow-consistent model of the South African economy. The model dynamics build on the simple computable general equilibrium (CGE) model developed by Devarajan and Go (1998) and incorporate elements of dynamic...
January 2018
Macro modelling
Working paper
We analyse implications of financial sector dynamics for fiscal expenditure multipliers in recessionary conditions. We employ a stock-and-flow-consistent model for South Africa with four financial instruments and detailed balance sheets for the household, government, financial...
January 2018
Macro modelling
News
UNU-WIDER launched its newest programme ‘Southern Africa – Towards Inclusive Economic Development (SA-TIED)’ on 30 November 2017 in Pretoria, South Africa. Together with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and a number of South...
11 December 2017
Enterprise development
Public revenue
Macro modelling
Inequality
Climate and energy
Regional growth