Impacts of climate change on agriculture and household welfare in Zambia: An economy-wide analysis

While there is consensus that rainfed agriculture is the primary impact channel for agrarian economies like Zambia, it is uncertain what the future climate will be like, how it will affect different economic sectors, and by what magnitudes. Despite some evidence on the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zambia, gaps remain in understanding the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture at subnational/regionallevel and for different crops. This paper contributes towards filling these gaps and assesses the potential impacts of climate change on agricultural production and welfare at national and subnational/regional levels. We use data from global circulation models (GCM) that are based on 398 climate scenarios for the level one stabilization (L1S) – where there is global climate mitigation action, and 421 scenarios for the unconstrained emissions (UCE) – where there are no global efforts to limit carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere. Unlike past studies, this paper combines biophysical and economy wide modelling, covering the entire gamut from climate science to economic outcomes and attempts to address the uncertainty with climate outcomes by utilizing 819 potential climates.