/macroeconomics
Macroeconomic modelling for policy formulation
National Treasury (NT) is central to macroeconomic policy in South Africa and holds a key role in maintaining macroeconomic stability around an achievable path of growing output capacity. This work stream is designed to further strengthen the capacity of NT, alongside other actors in the region, and to analyse macroeconomic developments and policy options in southern Africa.
Work on macroeconomic simulation models will be undertaken alongside separate studies related to macroeconomic stability, e.g. fiscal and monetary policies, exchange rate competitiveness, and exchange rate volatility. Two central policy objectives underlie and run through the work stream: raising South Africa’s sustainable growth rate and reducing inequality in South Africa.
The research is focused on five broad areas of policy focus
- fiscal policy
- monetary policy
- public investment and debts
- regional policy
- core policy analysis models of South African economy
Each area will engage junior NT officials as team members working jointly with the UNU-WIDER and NT team leaders on the respective topics.
Policy dialogue
29 Jun 2021 / 14:00
to
15:15
Macro modelling
On 29 June 2021, the SA-TIED programme will host its fifth online policy dialogue as part of the SA-TIED Dialogues – Research into Policy series. This policy dialogue will be hosted under the work stream...
In the media
During a speech to parliament on Thursday, South Africa’s Finance Minister, Tito Mboweni, discussed the important work being carried out by the Southern Africa – Towards Inclusive Economic Development (SA-TIED) programme. Mboweni highlighted the achievements...
May 2021
Enterprise development
Public revenue
Macro modelling
Inequality
Climate and energy
Regional growth
Working paper
The aim of this paper is to assess South Africa’s fiscal multiplier across different states of the economy, with a focus on the financial accelerator mechanism of fiscal policy shocks, by estimating impulse response functions...
May 2021
Macro modelling
Working paper
This study investigates the impacts of public expenditure innovations on exchange rate volatility in South Africa using quarterly data for the period 1970–2019. To achieve this objective, a version of the vector autoregressive impulse response...
May 2021
Macro modelling
News
During the months of April, May, and June, the SA-TIED programme will host six online policy dialogues as part of our SA-TIED Dialogues – Research into Policy series.
March 2021
Enterprise development
Public revenue
Macro modelling
Inequality
Climate and energy
Regional growth
Working paper
This paper uses firm-level data and a news-based measure of economic policy uncertainty to provide empirical evidence that economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on firm-level investment in South Africa.
March 2021
Macro modelling
Working paper
This paper aims to decompose the sources of growth in economies in the Southern African region’s Common Monetary Area and in the provinces of South Africa.
February 2021
Macro modelling
Working paper
Foreign direct investment is recognized as a significant driver of economic development and growth in many economies. It can have a positive effect on a host country’s development and growth efforts. This study seeks to...
January 2021
Macro modelling
Working paper
This paper analyses how exchange rate volatility affects domestic consumption. It uses a Bayesian vector autoregression model to measure impulse response, based on South African data from 1990 to 2016, which helps to detect how...
January 2021
Macro modelling
Working paper
This study simulates the macro-micro economic impacts of the employment policy, focusing on hysteresis in youth unemployment in South Africa. Specifically, we apply a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to calibrate the 2015 South African...
January 2021
Macro modelling
Working paper
This paper estimates the output cost of fighting inflation—the sacrifice ratio—for the South African economy using quarterly data spanning the period 1998Q1–2019Q3. To compute the sacrifice ratio, the structural vector autoregressive model developed by Cecchetti...
January 2021
Macro modelling
Research Brief
Even though poverty and inequality have been of overriding concern in South Africa’s development policies and programmes since its democratization in 1994, measures of poverty, inequality, and related phenomena in the country do not show...
December 2020
Macro modelling