/macroeconomics
Macroeconomic modelling for policy formulation
National Treasury (NT) is central to macroeconomic policy in South Africa and holds a key role in maintaining macroeconomic stability around an achievable path of growing output capacity. This work stream is designed to further strengthen the capacity of NT, alongside other actors in the region, and to analyse macroeconomic developments and policy options in southern Africa.
Work on macroeconomic simulation models will be undertaken alongside separate studies related to macroeconomic stability, e.g. fiscal and monetary policies, exchange rate competitiveness, and exchange rate volatility. Two central policy objectives underlie and run through the work stream: raising South Africa’s sustainable growth rate and reducing inequality in South Africa.
The research is focused on five broad areas of policy focus
- fiscal policy
- monetary policy
- public investment and debts
- regional policy
- core policy analysis models of South African economy
Each area will engage junior NT officials as team members working jointly with the UNU-WIDER and NT team leaders on the respective topics.
Technical workshop
27 Mar 2019 / 09:00
to
28 Mar 2019 / 16:00
Macro modelling
SA-TIED's work stream on macroeconomic modelling for policy formulation will hold a technical workshop for staff at the National Treasury on economy-wide multiplier models. The participants use multipliers in their daily work. The goal of...
Working paper
The study investigates the effect of real exchange rate volatility on the distribution of income between labour and capital in South Africa. Both symmetric and asymmetric effects were considered. Using quarterly data from 1985:1 to...
March, 2019
Macro modelling
Working paper
We employ a micro founded and stock and flow consistent model in the tradition of Backus et al. (1980) to study the impact of higher leverage ratio on the South African economy. The model provides...
March, 2019
Macro modelling
Working paper
Monetary policy is believed to have a disproportionate effect on firms depending on their size. Financially constrained firms with limited access to capital markets are expected to be more sensitive to changes in interest rates...
March, 2019
Macro modelling
Working paper
I provide a retrospective assessment of the effects of trade policies on South African manufacturing since the transition to democracy, examining the differences and commonalities in the views of economists in favour and against an...
March, 2019
Macro modelling
Working paper
This study employs traditional autoregressive and vector autoregressive forecasting models, as well as machine learning methods of forecasting, in order to compare the performance of each of these techniques. Each technique is used to forecast...
March, 2019
Macro modelling
Working paper
In the study, I use the Boone indicator to explore competition dynamics in the South African loan market. Using a standard pooled OLS estimation, I find that competition in the loan market has been improving...
March, 2019
Macro modelling
Working paper
This paper sets out to ascertain the appropriateness of the Basel III macro-prudential policy mechanisms as South African (SA) bank distance-to-default (DTD) determinants. Using a hybrid model embedded within a linear dynamic panel-data estimation technique...
March, 2019
Macro modelling
Working paper
South Africa faces many challenges, including modest economic growth and negative structural change, as well as high unemployment and inequality, and persistent poverty. Urbanization over the last two decades is an additional concern. Migration and...
March, 2019
Macro modelling
Working paper
This paper documents the construction of a South African Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for the year 2015. The SAM is built using a Statistics South Africa (Stats SA, 2018) Supply Table (ST) and Use Table...
March, 2019
Macro modelling
Working paper
This paper documents the construction of a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Zimbabwe in 2013. The SAM was built using National Accounts data from the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT), including balance of payment data...
November, 2018
Macro modelling
Technical workshop
28 Nov 2018 / 08:00
to
16:30
Macro modelling
This workshop is part of the capacity-building initiatives of the Macroeconomic modelling for policy formulation work stream. It will engage National Treasury Staff in a discussion about macroeconomic models and their application to South Africa...